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Wer es immer noch nicht glauben wollte, konnte es am The temporary deceleration in warming across the Northern Hemisphere earlier this century could not have been foreseen by statistical forecasting methods, a new study concludes.

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To test this hypothesis, Mann et al. Weiterlesen in Eos. Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods The temporary slowdown in large-scale surface warming during the early s has been attributed to both external and internal sources of climate variability.


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Using semiempirical estimates of the internal low-frequency variability component in Northern Hemisphere, Atlantic, and Pacific surface temperatures in concert with statistical hindcast experiments, we investigate whether the slowdown and its recent recovery were predictable.

We conclude that the internal variability of the North Pacific , which played a critical role in the slowdown, does not appear to have been predictable using statistical forecast methods.

An additional minor contribution from the North Atlantic, by contrast, appears to exhibit some predictability. While our analyses focus on combining semiempirical estimates of internal climatic variability with statistical hindcast experiments, possible implications for initialized model predictions are also discussed.

A new Approach to El Niño Prediction beyond the Spring Season

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  • A new Approach to El Niño Prediction beyond the Spring Season?

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Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

The recent slowdown in climate warming is due, at least in part, to natural oscillations in the climate , according to a team of climate scientists, who add that these oscillations represent variability internal to the climate system. They do not signal any slowdown in human-caused global warming. Mann, Byron A.

Mod-09 Lec-22 Intraseasonal variation and intraseasonal oscillations

Miller looked at a combination of real-world observational data and state-of-the-art climate model simulations used in the most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to understand the competing contributions to climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the historic era. They report their results today Feb 26 in Science. Share Give access Share full text access.


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Beyond El Niño

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